It occurred to me just now, reading this, that there are some weird consequences floating around waiting to leap on everyone as a ...]]> Because a day on which I don’t take ten minutes out from actual work to speculate on something no one can actually be sure of is clearly wasted…

It occurred to me just now, reading this, that there are some weird consequences floating around waiting to leap on everyone as a result of the arrival of digital books – always assuming that they have arrived, do arrive, and stay arrived – which are not the ones everyone is expecting.

Basically: it’s not that publishers think pricing ebooks high will lead to more sales (clearly, it won’t), it’s that they are scared that pricing them low will devalue the book per se, with the result that no book will be valued enough by the market to command a price which makes what they do profitable.

They also believe that digital sales will cannibalise paper sales.

You know what? If digital sales are any kind of success, they will. I just do not buy the idea that ebooks will be a driver of paper sales for ever. Either people will shift, or they won’t. In the latter case, ebooks are Minidisc or Betamax and the discussion is over. In the former, they will consume a part of the paper market. They’ve already consumed a part of my paper purchases. Why, why, why would I ever buy books I will almost certainly want to leave in my hotel room and carry them around instead of a Kindle?

But here’s the interesting thing: I think people do crave authenticity. I think they do enjoy the physical connection with a book, with the process of manufacture, and I think we underestimate the tactile connection with paper and so on at our peril. Otherwise, why would anyone wear a clockwork watch? But people do. Why would anyone go to the theatre? Blah blah.

So the upshot of all this may not be the death of the hardback – which seems to be the particular hate object of many ebook enthusiasts – but of the paperback. If you want to object, you want a proper, solid, long-lasting, attractive object. A boutique object. Otherwise you get the ebook. And if you buy the hardback, of course, you get the ebook and all the singing dancing multimedia thingies thrown in. For which privilege, you pay.

Maybe.