The first attempt to steal Egypt’s revolution…
The realpolitik apparatus around the world may be about to line up behind Omar Suleiman as successor to Hosni Mubarak. Suleiman, former foreign intelligence chief, is credited with shattering an Islamist terror network – using tactics still spoken of in whispers. He is highly educated in a variety of pretty tough schools, including the Soviet military academy in Frunze. He is also – and this is the important bit – an acceptable candidate to the military and security apparatus in Egypt, and a man who sees eye to eye with the US on Israel-Palestine and a variety of related issues. He is being touted as a logical successor and one who can hold the line against the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamism inside Egypt, a comforting idea to many in the Pentagon and the State Department.
He’s not really a democrat, though. In fact, he was seen two years ago as a possible successor to Mubarak because he was hard enough to continue the same policies, making it comfortable for Egypt’s strategic partners – basically, us. So as I said in my earlier post, this is the classic opportunity for the US and EU to sell a democratic movement down the river in the hope of securing our lines of supply. There will be much chatter about ‘stability’ in the region – by which is meant political and social lockdown so long as the oil continues to flow. The contention is and has always been that it’s better to have a strongman – like Saddam Hussein, for example, or Hosni Mubarak himself – than a weak democratic government or, worse yet, an unfavourable government elected in free and fair elections.
It’s a bad idea for so many reasons. Chalmers Johnson, alas now dead, wrote extensively about the phenomenon of blowback, which is essentially endemic in our lives today. William Blum has detailed the interventions and upsets which have resulted from this position since WWII in his book, Killing Hope.
But that doesn’t mean it won’t be pushed hard and represented as our only sensible course. Watch for talking heads telling us we’re far better off with Egypt under the thumb of a powerful leader than Egypt free.
